Jérôme Roux
Flavescence dorée (FD) is a grapevine disease caused by a phytoplasma and transmitted by an insect vector, the leafhopper Scaphoideus titanus.
It poses a major threat to European viticulture, causing yield losses and the death of infected vines.
In this work, we explore the epidemic dynamics of FD in Burgundy vineyards (2013–2023) through the reconstruction of contamination networks, a crucial step in understanding the spatio-temporal spread of the epidemic.
This work draws on a large dataset monitoring the FD epidemic across 100 000 plots over ten years, and on the construction of two complementary transmission networks, a spatial proximity network, based on the vector's natural dispersal capacity, and an exploitation network, reflecting passive dissemination via human activities.
By fitting a simple Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic model to these transmission networks, we estimate parameters by maximizing the log-likelihood, allowing us to distinguish the respective roles of the two transmission modes in the epidemic dynamics.
We also discuss the effects of certain observational biases on parameter estimation.
We hope that these results will help optimize FD surveillance and control strategies, and that further work can build on this approach by rigorously accounting for biases in the observation process.
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à BioSP